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Abstract
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PURPOSE This study examines the effect of TimeZup - a lever pulling strategy designed to reduce gun violence in New Haven, Connecticut.
DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH A series of ARIMA and dynamically complete models are estimated to determine if TimeZup was associated with any significant changes in New Haven's murder, firearm robbery and firearm assault rates. A quasi-experimental design is also used to compare New Haven to six, similarly situated cities in the Northeastern United States.
FINDINGS The results indicate that New Haven experienced a significant decrease in its firearm robbery rate in the summer of 1997 - a date that preceded TimeZup but coincided with other lever pulling strategies implemented by the New Haven Police Department.
ORIGINALITY/VALUE Although an older program, TimeZup was not rigorously analyzed. After the conclusion of the program, basic pre- and post-comparisons suggested TimeZup was effective. Using a rigorous methodology, this study shows it was not. This study points out that interventions such as TimeZup often coincide with pre-existing crime reduction strategies. Evaluators should account for those pre-existing strategies because it may be those strategies - and not the intervention being examined - that are impacting crime rates.
Language: en |