Citation

Ashraf MT, Dey K. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2022; 171: 106646.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2022.106646

PMID

35390699

Abstract

The objective of this research was to identify and prioritize deer-vehicle crash (DVC) hotspots using five years of crash data. This study applied Bayesian spatiotemporal models for the identification of the DVC hotspots. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model allows to observe area-specific trends in the DVC data and highlights specific locations where DVC occurrence is deteriorating or improving over time. Census Tracts (CTs) were used as the geographic units to aggregate DVC, land use, and transportation infrastructure related data of Minnesota (MN) for the year 2015 to 2019. Several tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of the hotspot identification methods. The result showed that Type-I spatiotemporal interaction model (Model-2) outperforms other four space-time models in terms of predicting DVC frequency in CTs and hotspot identification performance test measures.

RESULTS showed that forest area, vegetation, and wetland percentages were positively associated with DVC frequency, whereas the percentage of developed land use was negatively associated with DVC frequency. The findings of this study suggest that the deer population plays an important role in DVCs, which indicates that deer population management is necessary to minimize the DVC risks. Using the final Type-I spatiotemporal interaction model, 65 "High-High" CTs were identified, where both the posterior mean of the decision parameter (potential for safety improvement) and the area-specific trend were higher. The distribution of the identified hotspots showed that the risk of DVCs was more in suburban areas with mixed land use conditions. These CTs represent high-risk zones, which need immediate safety improvement measures to reduce the DVC risks. As DVC can occur at any roadway segment location, DVC hotspots information is important for safety engineers and policymakers to implement area specific countermeasures.

Language: en

Keywords

Bayesian inference; Deer-crash; Hotspots; R-INLA; Space–time interaction