Citation

Xie Y, Lin M, Decharme B, Delire C, Horowitz LW, Lawrence DM, Li F, Séférian R. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2022; 119(14): e2111372119.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, National Academy of Sciences)

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2111372119

PMID

35344431

Abstract

SignificanceRecord-setting fires in the western United States over the last decade caused severe air pollution, loss of human life, and property damage. Enhanced drought and increased biomass in a warmer climate may fuel larger and more frequent wildfires in the coming decades. Applying an empirical statistical model to fires projected by Earth System Models including climate-ecosystem-socioeconomic interactions, we show that fine particulate pollution over the US Pacific Northwest could double to triple during late summer to fall by the late 21st century under intermediate- and low-mitigation scenarios. The historic fires and resulting pollution extremes of 2017-2020 could occur every 3 to 5 y under 21st-century climate change, posing challenges for air quality management and threatening public health.

Language: en

Keywords

air quality; climate warming; drought; Earth System Models; fires