Citation

Wang X, Swystun T, Flannigan MD. Sci. Total Environ. 2022; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154752

PMID

35339558

Abstract

Great efforts have been made to understand the impacts of a changing climate on fire activity; however, a reliable approach with high prediction confidence has yet to be found. By establishing linkages between the longest duration of fire-conducive weather spell and fire activity parameters, this study projected annual area burned (AAB), annual number of fires (ANF), and annual maximum fire size (MFS) into the future. We found that even though the rates of change differ, the spatial pattern of changes for all three parameters are similar by Canadian ecozone. Areas with the lowest fire activity may see higher rates of change in comparison to high fire activity areas. By end of the century, the changes of AAB and MFS for the study area are projected to be about four and five times that of the baseline respectively, while ANF could almost double.

Language: en

Keywords

Canada; Climate change; Annual area burned; Annual number of fires; Fire activity; Fire weather; Max fire size