Citation

Roy S, Vinayak P, Von Stroh D. Transp. Res. Rec. 2022; 2676(1): 688-703.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/03611981211036367

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Climate risk factors, including wildfire, sea level rise, inland flooding, and extreme heat, as well as gentrification displacement pressures will be primary drivers of migration in the coming years. Travel demand modeling relies on reasonable and appropriate forecasts of demographic totals at the detail of travel analysis zones.

METHODologies for developing scenarios in response to individual and combined climate risk factors are described, drawing on work undertaken for the Southern California Association of Governments SoCal Regional Climate Adaptation Framework.

METHODologies for developing scenarios in response to gentrification displacement pressures of low-income workers are described, drawing on work carried out for the California Statewide Freight Forecasting and Travel Demand Model. These methodologies leverage modeling tools that are readily available to agencies, allowing for rapid testing of scenarios and integration with other planning processes. Climate adaptation and housing policy, respectively, are currently in need of greater integration and coordination. Future directions are explored to integrate these methodologies and create a combined demographic relocation model, sensitive to both climate risk factors and the affordability and gentrification displacement pressures arising out of shifting demand-supply dynamics and population-job balance in high growth areas.

Language: en

Keywords

accessibility and mobility; classification description: planning and analysis; climate change; community resilience; economic impacts; environmental impact; hazard mitigation; investment prioritization; land development; long-range plan; megaregions; natural hazards and extreme weather events; preparedness and protection; resilience and risk management; social impacts; strategic relocation; sustainability and resilience; sustainable growth; transportation and economic development; transportation and sustainability; transportation equity; transportation infrastructure protection and preparedness; transportation planning policy and processes; transportation systems resilience; vulnerability and resilience assessment; vulnerability and threat assessment