Citation

Škultéty F, Jarošová M, Rostáš J. Transp. Res. Proc. 2021; 59: 174-182.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Elsevier Publications)

DOI

10.1016/j.trpro.2021.11.109

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Meteorological reports from Europe indicate that the number and intensity of summer thunderstorms are from year to year, gradually increasing. Climate change is seen as a difference in mean temperature and precipitation level and can lead to dangerous weather phenomena. This paper is driven by the idea to determine the impact of severe weather on air transport in Europe during the summer months. For the analysis, Performance Review Unit (PRU) Dashboard data from 2013 to 2019 were used. The more recent period was not considered due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The methodology covers the statistical analysis to confirm the theory. Research has shown that weather-related en-route delays are growing, influencing air transport's future operation and economics. This paper also presents a medium-term forecast (3 years period) of the weather-related delays using the Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) Holt-Winters model. Based on the obtained outcomes, recommendations are presented in the conclusion.

Language: en

Keywords

air operator impact; air transport; cold front; forecast models; phenomena; safety; weather