Citation

Burrieza-Galán J, Vázquez RR, Cantú-Ros OG, Aifadopoulou G, Grau JS, Konstantinidou M, Frederix R, Pápics P. Transp. Res. Proc. 2021; 58: 230-237.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Elsevier Publications)

DOI

10.1016/j.trpro.2021.11.032

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

On-demand mobility services are changing the way we move in cities, fostered by digitalisation, vehicle automation and Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) platforms. Transport planning tools and techniques are expected to keep up to date to support decision-makers on the successful integration of these new mobility options in the urban transport mix. However, the evolution of the emerging mobility solutions is highly uncertain, as it is a function of complex factors that go beyond the influence of transport stakeholders. This poses a challenge for the definition of the requirements that data analysis techniques and modelling tools will face. This paper presents a series of explorative scenarios that provide different contexts for the evolution of urban mobility in Europe, in order to grasp the plausible pathways that shared mobility services will follow in the upcoming decades. The scenarios are adapted from those developed by the climate change research community and are used in a Delphi poll to gather expert visions on how shared mobility services will evolve. The availability of a range of possible futures for shared mobility facilitates the identification of the capabilities that transport decision-makers will demand from data analysis techniques and modelling tools.

Language: en

Keywords

Delphi; explorative scenarios; scenario-making; shared mobility; transport modelling