Citation

Cohen J, Vadali S, Lawrence MF, Dave S, Clark C. Transp. Res. Rec. 2021; 2675(10): 616-628.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/03611981211011997

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper describes the findings of an independent peer review of the modeling tools used by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center to forecast national vehicle miles traveled (VMT) over the next 30 years. Overall, the VMT forecasting models, which use autoregressive distributed lag models for light-duty vehicle, single-unit truck, and combination truck VMT, work well to estimate travel demand. All model estimations were reviewed, and all models perform well against several validation and testing techniques. The study team was supported by an expert panel selected from academia, government, and industry with experience in econometric methods, transportation and economic data, and modeling methods. The panel reviewed model documentation as well as the report assessing the VMT forecasting models and provided insight into alternative model research. The paper is an effort to synthesize the approaches and the validation methods used. A complementary literature search was also conducted to test the validity and comparability of several estimated variable coefficients. The paper concludes by summarizing the key findings and making recommendations on future model improvements.

Language: en