Citation

Gaddy HG. SSM Popul. Health 2021; 16: e100944.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100944

PMID

34746358

PMCID

PMC8551840

Abstract

Recent research has suggested that the social distancing mandates introduced in the United States during the main waves of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic caused an increase in suicide rates. However, that finding relies on poor-quality, temporally mismatched data and has signs of omitted variable bias. Similarly, a long-standing finding that American suicide rates in 1918-20 were also boosted by the influenza mortality of the time has gone unquestioned in the literature, despite the original research admitting its risk of ecological fallacy. Using higher-powered mortality data, I cast doubt on both findings by analyzing the experiences of the pandemic in 43 of the largest American cities of the time. In line with some populations' experiences of COVID-19, I report tentative evidence that social distancing mandates during the 1918-20 pandemic may have been associated with decreased suicide rates. Larger, cross-national investigations of the effects of historical pandemics and social distancing mandates on mental health and suicide are needed.

Language: en

Keywords

United States; Suicide; Mental health; 1918 influenza pandemic; Social distancing; Social epidemiology