Citation

Ono K, Yoshida M, Kato E, Tsunemi K. J. Japan Soc. Safety Eng. 2021; 60(1): 15-23.

Vernacular Title

化学物質非定常排出シナリオ構築のための事故情報解析

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Japan Society for Safety Engineering)

DOI

10.18943/safety.60.1_15

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

When we assess accidental chemical releases from plant derived from accident or natural hazard, it is necessary to construct reasonable scenario as non-stationary emissions and to perform realistic simulations. The goal of the study is to construct reasonable release scenario, however, actual accident data have not been summarized for such purpose. In this study, we used the data from "Information on Spills and Leakage Incidents of Poisonous or Deleterious Substances" database for 1999-2018, and summarized the characteristics of the major incidents, major chemical substances and the nature of the assumed effects of the incidents. Hydrogen chloride, ammonia, and chlorine were the most frequently reported substances for leakage into the air. On the other hand, sodium hydroxide, sulfuric acid, and hydrogen chloride were the most frequently reported substances for effluent into water. The cumulative frequency distributions of emission amount were close to log normal. The averages （50 percentile） and worst-case （95 percentile） of the release amount of these substances were calculated. As for hydrogen chloride to the air, 50 and 95 percentiles were 240 and 11,000 kg, respectively. It is expected that the results of this analysis can be used to develop a realistic scenario for non-stationary releases of chemical substances

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災害・事故等による化学物質の非定常排出に伴う一般環境への影響を推定する際，現実の事故の性質や規模を想定してシミュレーションを行うことが必要である．本研究では，その際の現実的なシナリオの構築を目的として，「毒物又は劇物の流出・漏洩事故情報」への届出データ（1999-2018 年）を用いて，毒劇物の事故時の環境影響と漏洩・流出量を整理した．大気への影響がある物質では塩化水素，アンモニア，塩素が，水域では水酸化ナトリウム，硫酸，塩化水素が多かった．漏洩・流出量の累積度数分布は対数正規分布に近かった．主要な物質について漏洩・流出量の平均的な値（50 パーセンタイル），ワーストケースと考えられる値（95 パーセンタイル）を算出し，例えば大気への塩化水素の場合，それぞれ240，11 000 kg と求めることができた．

Language: ja

Keywords

Accident scenario construction; Chemical substances; Damage on environment; Damage on human; Poisonous and deleterious substances; ヒト健康影響; 事故シナリオ構築; 化学物質; 毒劇物; 環境影響