Citation

Fujita G, Watanabe K, Yokota K, Suzuki M, Wachi T, Otsuka Y, Kuraishi H. Homicide Stud. 2016; 20(4): 295-320.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/1088767915613828

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This study examines the validity of a statistical offender profiling technique that predicts the multi-dimensional classification of homicide offenders. Analyzing 539 Japanese homicide cases, we constructed multivariate prediction models that infer classifications defined by three dichotomous variables (stranger offender, solo offender, money-oriented motive) on the basis of crime scene information. We evaluated the validity of the models with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and found the models to have moderate accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] =.73 to.82). We discussed the results from the perspective of the offender's rational choices in the crime scene and crime specialization.

Language: en

Keywords

crime scene; crime specialization; investigation; multivariate prediction model; policing; predictive validity; profiling; rational choice