Citation

Böckler N, Allwinn M, Metwaly C, Wypych B, Hoffmann J, Zick A. J. Threat Assess. Manag. 2020; 7(3-4): 157-172.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, American Psychological Association)

DOI

10.1037/tam0000150

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The Terrorist Radicalization Protocol 18 (TRAP-18) is tested on a sample of 80 people who were convicted for Islamist activities in Germany between 2006 and 2017. In the study, perpetrators of terrorist attacks will be compared to persons who have been convicted of propagandistic and financial terrorist support and of joining a terrorist organization abroad. Statistical analysis of the results shows that there are significant differences between terrorist perpetrators and persons convicted of nonviolent Islamist activities, both in the number of TRAP-18 items and in the proximal warning behaviors "pathway," "last resort," "energy burst," and "novel aggression." Subsequent ROC analyses underline both the specificity and sensitivity of the instrument. AUC values range from.83 to.90 for the four different models (TRAP-18 and the warning behavior typology as weighted and unweighted models). The highest discrimination between Islamist attackers and the non-attackers is achieved by the weighted warning behavior typology. The values for sensitivity (se =.80), specificity (sp =.93), positive predictive value (p+ =.80), and negative predictive value (p− =.93) are extremely promising. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved)

Language: en