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Abstract
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The anthropogenic climate change has numerous adverse health effects, such as heat-related morbidity and mortality, respiratory diseases from wildfire smoke, rise of prevailing and novel vector-borne and water-borne infectious diseases following a drought or flood, and death or injury due to storms or flooding. However, the potential effect of high temperature on increased interpersonal violence, in the context of climate change, has received much less attention.
A growing body of research suggests that rising temperature increases some violent crimes, such as intentional homicides, sex offences,and assaults. In a retrospective study in seven US cities, every 5°C rise in daily mean temperature between 2007 and 2017 was associated with a 4·5% increase in sex offences in the following 0-8 days. A nationwide analysis in Japan between 2012 and 2015 found that ambulance transports due to assault increased linearly with the rise in daily temperatures. Violent incidents also showed a seasonal distribution by which most crimes happened in the summer or hot seasons than in winter. Hence, interpersonal violence in hot weather is likely to continue and increase in the future with increasing temperature due to climate change. In a 2014 paper, Matthew Ranson found that there could be an additional 22 000 murders, 1·2 million aggravated assaults, and 2·3 million simple assaults because of climate change in the USA by the end of this century as compared with 2010.
There are two main theories that can help explain a positive association between ambient temperature and violent crime. The first theory, known as biological theory or temperature-aggression theory, explains that hot weather induces interpersonal violence by increasing discomfort, frustration, impulsivity, and aggression. However, this theory does not explain the increases in violent crime in areas where the temperature has risen from cold to warm, as temperature rise in this range is unlikely to cause uncomfortableness. Such settings require the second theory, known as routine activity theory, which suggests that change in ambient temperature can alter people's routine activities (eg, outdoor events and social contacts) and increase interpersonal conflicts or create suitable crime environments. It is also important to consider the role of interrelated demographic, socioeconomic, cognitive, personality, and biological factors that affect the way a person reacts.
Studies that have investigated temperature-violence associations to date are only preliminary. There could be other contributing factors to various violent acts that have been not captured and might modify temperature associations...
Language: en |