Citation

Reis ALQ, Stenders RM, Alves IS, Câmara RA, Arana ARA, Amorim JCC, Andrade ER. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2021; 57: e102198.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102198

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This study focuses on the possible mathematical correlation between the indexes (Gravelius, flood, and hazard) that characterize the propensity of a territory to suffer flooding, and the potential damage caused to the public. This characterization quantifies the level of threat of flood damage which in turn is combined with the Dunning-Kruger coefficient. The second one is created in this work in order to consider the cognitive influence exerted by decision-makers on the risk perception. This combination allows us to estimate how much the intellectual self-perception of the decision-makers influences the results, thus offering a new perspective for the assessment of natural disaster management. From this estimate, it is possible to establish a different perspective which takes into account the interaction between threat and responsiveness of decision-makers for the projection of damage to human life in the event of a flood.

Language: en

Keywords

Cognitive bias; Decision; Flood; Risk