Citation

Katz R. Transp. Res. Rec. 1995; 1502: 22-28.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1995, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This article examines the need for quantitative modeling of bicycle demand and reviews the techniques available for incorporating bicycles into existing transportation planning models. It is argued that there is insufficient attention paid to quantitative modeling of bicycle demand and that this results in the case for bicycle provision being poorly based. Transportation modeling, as in many other areas of research, has a traditional method of approach. Improvements in models have tended to be incremental rather than revolutionary. In improving the models of bicycle demand, it is appropriate to review the elements of the traditional approach to determine whether it is possible to tailor those models to the needs of bicycle planning. The location-specific models of traditional transportation models are characterized by considerable spatial detail and very few variables that relate to travel behavior. Although these models are unsatisfactory, particularly insofar as they have treated bicycle transportation, their results continue to be required by practitioners responsible for transportation provision. In the future, however, these models will have a different focus than the predict-and-provide approach taken in years past. This can be expected to result in improved treatment of minority modes such as bicycles. The challenge for incorporating bicycles into future models is to develop a behavioral understanding of bicycle demand that can be incorporated into the spatially defined network models. Some new tools of transportation planning and network management can also be exploited to ensure that bicycle transportation is not forgotten by mainstream transportation researchers.

Language: en

Keywords

Mathematical models; Public policy; Planning; Bicycles; Nonmotorized transportation; Urban planning