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Abstract
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate advancements in the prevention of road traffic injuries (RTI) in Mexico in the context of the United Nation's Decade of Action for Road Safety.
METHODS: An analysis of the trend and age-period-cohort effects of RTI mortality from 1999 to 2018 was conducted. Mortality figures were age-standardized using the direct method and population estimates of 2018 as the standard. To evaluate whether advancements might be attributed to higher levels of death misclassification, we conducted sensitive analysis using multiple imputation to redistributed deaths allocated to non-specific ICD-10 codes. Non-fatal RTI from four nationally representative health surveys (2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018) were analyzed.
FINDINGS: Implementation of Mexico's National Road Safety Strategy 2011-2020 was associated with an average annual percentage change reduction in the age-standardized RTI mortality rate of 1.3% (95%-CI: -1.8,-0.9). Reductions are more evident in pedestrians and four + wheelers (-6.7% and -5.3%, respectively, from 2011 to 2018); mortality trend in motorcyclists increased from 1999 to 2018 an average of 12.8% annually (95%-CI: 9.9, 15.9). Potential underestimation of mortality due to death misclassification decreased from 22.7% in 1999 to 16.4% in 2018; sensitive analysis showed that reductions might not be attributed to death misclassification. Non-fatal injuries decreased in four + wheelers but increased in motorcyclists. The number of individuals suffering permanent consequences from RTI increased.
CONCLUSIONS: Results showed some potential gains of Mexico's road safety strategies: RTI in four + wheelers decreased. Efforts should be put in place urgently to prevent the growing number of RTI in motorcyclists.
Language: en |