Citation

Zhang J, He A, Fan C, Yan X, Soares CG. Risk Anal. 2020; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.13662

PMID

33340127

Abstract

Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk.

Language: en

Keywords

Conjugate Bayesian model; Jiangsu segment of the Yangtze river; maritime transportation; risk influencing factors (RIFs); ship collision