Citation

Thompson P, Nilsson D, Boyce KE, Molloy M, McGrath D. Fire Mater. 2020; 44(6): 879-893.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1002/fam.2889

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Crowd movement simulation models are generally based on aggregated speed and flow data collected more than 50 years ago. There appears to be no validated modelling capability to include the impact of recent and future changes in population demographics, resulting from an ageing population and increasing obesity rates. New analytical approaches and data gathering are required to successfully model crowd movement and safety for current and future generations. This study carried out (a) a review of the primary components of crowd movement, demographics and analytical techniques, (b) prototype experiments to investigate age-related aspects of space and potential points of contact and (c) a new predictive model for crowd flow analysis based on pedestrian biomechanics and anthropometric data. The model uses the physical space taken up by the biomechanical walking process and the spatial buffer between points of potential contact with other pedestrians to predict the speed of movement at different levels of congestion. The new analytical model was used to predict single file speeds (for people with different demographics in congested space), which compared well with published experimental data. The next steps for model development for wider "flows" and additional experiments to provide data sets for wider demographics are also proposed.

Language: en

Keywords

biomechanics; contact buffer; crowd flow; model; step length; walking speed