Citation

Baumgartner FR, Box-Steffensmeier JM, Campbell BW, Caron C, Sherman H. PLoS One 2020; 15(10): e0240401.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Public Library of Science)

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0240401

PMID

33108793

Abstract

We demonstrate strong self-referential effects in county-level data concerning use of the death penalty. We first show event-dependency using a repeated-event model. Higher numbers of previous events reduce the expected time delay before the next event. Second, we use a cross-sectional time-series approach to model the number of death sentences imposed in a given county in a given year. This model shows that the cumulative number of death sentences previously imposed in the same county is a strong predictor of the number imposed in a given year.

RESULTS raise troubling substantive implications: The number of death sentences in a given county in a given year is better predicted by that county's previous experience in imposing death than by the number of homicides. This explains the previously observed fact that a large share of death sentences come from a small number of counties and documents the self-referential aspects of use the death penalty. A death sentencing system based on racial dynamics and then amplified by self-referential dynamics is inconsistent with equal protection of the law, but this describes the United States system well.

Language: en