Citation

Pollock W, Wartman J. Geohealth 2020; 4(10): e2020GH000287.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, American Geophysical Union, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1029/2020GH000287

PMID

33094206 PMCID

Abstract

Landslides pose a devastating threat to human health, killing thousands of people annually. Human vulnerability is a crucial element of landslide risk reduction, yet up until now, all methods for estimating the human consequences of landslides rely on subjective, expert judgment. Furthermore, these methods do not explore the underlying causes of mortality or inform strategies to reduce landslide risk. In light of these issues, we develop a data-driven tool to estimate an individual's probability of death based on landslide intensity, which can be used directly in landslide risk assessment. We find that between inundation depths of approximately 1-6 m, human behavior is the primary driver of mortality. Landslide vulnerability is strongly correlated with the economic development of a region, but landslide losses are not stratified by gender and age to the degree of other natural hazards. We observe that relatively simple actions, such as moving to an upper floor or a prepared refuge space, increase the odds of survival by up to a factor of 12. Additionally, community-scale hazard awareness programs and training for citizen first responders offer a potent means to maximize survival rates in landslides.

Language: en

Keywords

mortality; vulnerability; disaster; risk analysis; landslide; probability of death