Citation

Guo R, Wu Z, Zhang Y, Lin PS, Wang Z. Transp. Res. Rec. 2020; 2674(8): 720-731.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0361198120920267

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of demographics and land uses on pedestrian crash frequency by integrating the contextual geo-location data. To address the issue of heterogeneity, three negative binomial models (with fixed parameters, with observed heterogeneity, and with both observed and unobserved heterogeneities) were examined. The best fit with the data was obtained by explicitly incorporating the observed and unobserved heterogeneity into the model. This highlights the need to accommodate both observed heterogeneity across neighborhood characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity in pedestrian crash frequency modeling. The marginal effect results imply that some land-use types (e.g., discount department stores and fast-food restaurants) could be candidate locations for the education campaigns to improve pedestrian safety. The observed heterogeneity of the area indicator suggests that priority should be given to more populated low-income areas for pedestrian safety, but attention is also needed for the higher-income areas with larger densities of bus stops and hotels. Moreover, three normally distributed random parameters (proportion of older adults, proportion of lower-speed roads, and density of convenience stores in the area) were identified as having random effects on the probability of pedestrian crash occurrences. Finally, the identification of pedestrian crash hot zone provides practitioners with prioritized neighborhoods (e.g., a list of areas) for developing effective pedestrian safety countermeasures.

Language: en