Citation

Lindell MK, Sorensen JH, Baker EJ, Lehman WP. Transp. Res. D Trans. Environ. 2020; 85: e102457.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.trd.2020.102457

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Household evacuation preparation time distributions are essential when computing evacuation time estimates (ETEs) for hurricanes with late intensification or late changing tracks. Although evacuation preparation times have been assessed by expected task completion times, actual task completion times, and departure delays, it is unknown if these methods produce similar results. Consequently, this study compares data from one survey assessing expected task completion times, three surveys assessing actual task completion times, and three surveys assessing departure delays after receiving a warning. In addition, this study seeks to identify variables that predict household evacuation preparation times. These analyses show that the three methods of assessing evacuation preparation times produce results that are somewhat different, but the differences have plausible explanations. Household evacuation preparation times are poorly predicted by demographic variables, but are better predicted by variables that predict evacuation decisions--perceived storm characteristics, expected personal impacts, and evacuation facilitators.

Language: en

Keywords

Departure delay time distributions; Hurricane evacuation models; Mobilization time distributions; Preparation time distributions; Social milling