Citation

Abbasinia M, Kalatpour O, Motamedzadeh M, Soltanian A, Mohammadfam I. J. Res. Health Sci. (2005) 2020; 20(1): e00468.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, School of Public Health)

DOI

10.34172/jrhs.2020.03

PMID

32814689

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human error is one of the major causes of accidents in the petrochemical industry. Under critical situation, human error is affected by complex factors. Managing such a situation is important to prevent losses and injury. This study aimed to develop a dynamic model of human error assessment in emergencies in the petrochemical industry.

STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional study.

METHODS: Fuzzy Bayesian network was used to improve the capabilities of the method for determining the control mode. Fuzzy-AHP-TOPSIS method was also used to prioritize emergency scenarios and human error assessment was applied for the most important emergency condition.

RESULTS: Fire in a chemical storage unit was recognized as the most important emergency condition. Common Performance Conditions (CPCs) were determined based on the opinions of a panel of 30 experts and specialists and 7 CPCs were selected for emergencies; then, based on the results of AHP method the relative weights were determined. Finally, membership functions, inputs, and outputs of fuzzy sets, CPC values in 8 emergency response tasks, and the probability of control modes were determined using Bayesian Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) method.

CONCLUSION: This method could be applied to overcome the weaknesses of traditional methods, provide a repeatable method for human error assessment, and manage human error in an emergency.

Language: en

Keywords

Emergency management; Human error; Fuzzy Bayesian CREAM