Citation

Bonera M, Maternini G. Transp. Res. Proc. 2020; 45: 659-667.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Elsevier Publications)

DOI

10.1016/j.trpro.2020.03.044

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Road infrastructures assume a core role in road safety, and it is essential to monitor existing roads and evaluate their projects to ensure high safety standards for all users. The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) represents the main reference at international level as it provides effective tools for road safety management. The American experience has led to the predictive method for road safety, which is an innovative approach based on complex statistical-analytical procedure that produces an estimate of the expected variation of the number of accidents. The HSM predictive method has been developed for the American environment, so that several concerns arise when seeking to transfer it elsewhere. The authors tried to apply this approach to a urban context typical of European middle-size cities, which is highly different from that of American one. The parameter involved in the model were slightly modified, according to the specific condition and data availability, while the statistical models provided by the manual were kept unvaried. The results obtained with the modified structure showed a slight deviation from the real observed data related to road accidents occurring in the study area for the three-years evaluation period (2014-2015-2016). Since collision data were not enough to validate the procedure, further analysis and tests would be required to assess the proposed variation, also considering other sites and more collisions data.

Language: en

Keywords

HSM; Predictive method; Road safety; Road Safety Prevision