Citation

Lu M, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang L. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2020; 20: e2020-11.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Copernicus GmbH on behalf of the European Geosciences Union)

DOI

10.5194/nhess-2020-11

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. Nevertheless, a rigorous quantitative highway landslide risk assessment seems difficult. Using a case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method for quantitative risk assessment for highway landslides. The suggested method consists of three parts, i.e., analysis of annual failure probability of the slope, the spatial impact analysis and the consequence analysis. In the case study, the annual failure probability of the slope is analyzed based on historical failure data in Hong Kong. The spatial impact of the landslides is estimated based on empirical correlations with the geometry of the slope. The consequence is assessed based on probabilistic modeling of the traffic on the highway. Based on the suggested method, the annual failure probability of the slope, the distance from the slope and the road and the density of vehicles on the road can significantly affect the landslide risk and the suggested method can be used to quantify the effects of these factors. The suggested method can be also potentially used to analyze the highway landslide risk in other regions.

Language: en