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Abstract
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In February 2014, pubs and bars in Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD) of Sydney, Australia were required to stop serving alcohol by 3am and operate a 'lockout' from 1.30am. We studied change in the incidence of assault over the following 5 years, including possible displacement.
DESIGN: Controlled before-and-after ecologic study. SETTING: Sydney, Australia. CASES: Assaults in specified areas in which police apprehended at least one person. MEASUREMENTS: We compared change in non-domestic assault in KX and the CBD with adjacent areas, other city areas, and outer suburbs, adjusting for the trend in the rest of the state during three periods: 18:00-01:29 ('pre-lockout'), 01:30-02.59 ('lockout'), and 03:00-06:00 ('after last-drinks'). We constructed interrupted time-series models with terms for secular trend and season, producing Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) for step and slope parameters. We performed sensitivity analyses on impacts of missing location data.
FINDINGS: After the intervention, assaults fell 38% in KX (IRR for step change: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.79), and 10% in the CBD (IRR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.80, 0.99). Assaults continued declining in KX (IRR for slope: 0.990, 95% CI: 0.982, 0.998) and later increased in adjacent areas (IRR for slope: 1.006, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.011), and earlier in the evenings in both KX and the adjacent areas. The net reduction was 627 assaults over 60 months post-intervention, i.e., 10 fewer per month. Estimates were robust to extreme assumptions about missing data.
CONCLUSIONS: The 2014 alcohol supply restrictions for pubs and bars in Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD) of Sydney, Australia were followed by a substantial reduction in the incidence of assault in KX and to a lesser extent in the CBD, possibly displacing some cases to adjacent areas and earlier in the evening.
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Language: en |