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Abstract
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OBJECTIVE--To identify US counties (1) that had either significantly high or significantly low firearm homicide rates among black males 15 through 19 years of age in 1983 through 1985 and in 1987 through 1989, and/or (2) that experienced a significant increase in the firearm homicide rate between 1983 through 1985 and 1987 through 1989. DESIGN--Using the Compressed Mortality File, a county-level mortality and population database maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control, Hyattsville, Md, county-level firearm homicide rates are analyzed. SETTING--Eighty counties with a population of at least 10,000 black males 15 through 19 years of age in 1987 through 1989. SUBJECTS--Black males 15 through 19 years of age whose underlying cause of death was classified as firearm homicide (E965.0 through E965.4, or E970) in the ICD-9 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries, and Causes of Death, Ninth Revision). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--County-specific firearm homicide rate. RESULTS--In 1983 through 1985 and in 1987 through 1989, seven and 13 counties, respectively, were identified that had significantly high firearm homicide rates. Firearm homicide rates were significantly high in both time periods in the following counties: Los Angeles, California; Wayne, Michigan; Kings, New York; St Louis City, Missouri; and Baltimore City, Maryland. Firearm homicide rates increased significantly between 1983 through 1985 and 1987 through 1989 in 34 of the 80 counties. Twenty counties had significantly low rates in both time periods. Several counties with low rates in 1983 through 1985 experienced significant increases and by 1987 through 1989 were among those with high rates. CONCLUSIONS--Surveillance of firearm homicide rates at the county levels in counties with high and with low rates is a necessary first step in the development of successful violence prevention programs. Those counties where rates are high and increasing are the counties that are in greatest need for intervention strategies. Knowledge of the incidence of nonfatal firearm injuries is also needed.
VioLit summary:
OBJECTIVE:
The objective of this paper by Fingerhut et al. was to identify counties in the United State that had either "(1) significantly high or significantly low firearm homicide rates among black males 15 through 19 years of age in 1983 through 1985 and in 1987 through 1989, and/or (2) that experienced a significant increase in the firearm homicide rate between 1983 through 1985 and 1987 through 1989."
METHODOLOGY:
This was a quasi-experimental cross-sectional study using secondary data. The black male juvenile homicide rates in 80 counties with a population of at least 10,000 in 1987 through 1989 were analyzed using data from the Compressed Mortality File, a county-level national mortality and population database (National Center for Health Statistics). All 80 counties were metropolitan counties, as defined by the Office of Management and Budget. Firearm homicides were defined by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries, and Causes of Death, Ninth Revision (ICD-9), and included codes E965. 0 through E965. 4 or E970. To determine whether an individual county's firearm homicide rate was significantly high for the period 1987 through 1989 compared with the rate for all the counties combine, the probability that the observed number of homicides would occur in that county were estimated using a 1000 iteration simulation. The observed homicides were randomly distributed among the counties in proportion to the population of black males 15 through 19 years old. To determine whether there was a significant increase in firearm homicide between 1983 through 1985 and 1987 through 1989, a two-tailed t-test of the rates for each period was calculated. Differences between death rates are considered significant if P<=0.05.
FINDINGS/DISCUSSION:
In 1983 through 1985 seven counties had significantly highfirearm homicide rates; in 1987 through 1989, thirteen counties had significantly high rates. The rates were high during both time periods in the following counties: Los Angeles, California; Wayne, Michigan; Kings, New York; St Louis City, Missouri; and Baltimore city, Maryland. Firearm homicide rates increased significantly between the two time periods in 34 of the 80 counties. The rates tripled in 18 counties, and in 10 of these counties the rate increased by a factor of more than six. Twenty counties had significantly low rates in both time periods. Eleven counties with low to average rates in 1983 through 1985 had among the highest rates in the second time period.
AUTHORS' RECOMMENDATIONS:
Surveillance of firearm homicide rates at the county level in counties with high and with low rates is a necessary first step in the development of successful violence prevention programs. Data on the incidence of nonfatal injuries is also necessary. (CSPV Abstract - Copyright © 1992-2007 by the Center for the Study and Prevention of Violence, Institute of Behavioral Science, Regents of the University of Colorado)
KW - 1980s
KW - Firearms Homicide
KW - Firearms Violence
KW - Homicide Rates
KW - Homicide Incidence and Prevalence
KW - Homicide Offender
KW - Homicide Victim
KW - Victimization Rates
KW - Juvenile Victim
KW - Juvenile Offender
KW - Juvenile Violence
KW - Juvenile Male
KW - Male Violence
KW - Male Victim
KW - Male Offender
KW - African American Offender
KW - African American Victim
KW - African American Violence
KW - African American Homicide
KW - Juvenile Firearms Use
KW - Late Adolescence
KW - Early Adolescence |