Citation

Crawford MH, Saunders WSA, Doyle EEH, Leonard GS, Johnston DM. Australas. J. Disaster Trauma Stud. 2019; 23(1): 3-20.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Massey University, School of Psychology)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

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Abstract

The Hikurangi Subduction Interface, located 50 to 100 kilometres off the east coast of New Zealand's North Island, has the potential to generate the most destructive tsunami New Zealand is likely to encounter over a 1000-year timeframe. Yet, while such a severe risk hangs over the area, the number and detail of tsunami risk management policies do not match this risk. This article presents research on the influence of low-likelihood on perceptions for developing destructive tsunami risk management policy. It explores the thoughts and opinions of natural hazard risk practitioners in regards to tsunami risk management policy, along with the use of risk modelling (RiskScape) for tsunami policy development.

RESULTS highlight risk perceptions associated with the low-likelihood of a destructive tsunami, including such an event being perceived as "not happening here" and the development of tsunami risk management policy perceived as sitting in the "too hard basket'". We discuss how these risk perceptions could be influenced by cognitive biases due to their seemingly illogical nature and how risk modelling can be used as a communication tool to help overcome these perception challenges. We conclude with some recommendations for how we could better match tsunami risk management policy with tsunami risk through further developing local government provisions for risk management, the influence of cognitive biases, risk modelling, and policy flexibility.


Keywords: Tsunami, risk perception, policy development, risk modelling, cognitive bias, local government

Language: en