Citation

Shimada Y, Mori T. Jpn. J. Crim. Psychol. 2019; 57(1): 17-29.

Vernacular Title

少年用サービス水準/ケースマネジメント目録 (YLS/CMI)による家庭裁判所係属少年の 再犯リスクの査定と予測的 妥当性の検証

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, The Japanese Association of Criminal Psychology [Nihon Hanzai-shinrigakkai])

DOI

10.20754/jjcp.57.1_17

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for predicting the risk of recidivism was tested with Japanese juvenile delinquents who have been sent to Family courts and were not under detention (N＝213). Recidivism was defined as any re-offense after being investigated by a family court officer in a community setting. In addition to information about recidivism, the number of days to recidivate were also recorded. Disposition type (protective measures, non-protective measures, and others), gender and age group (younger, middle, or older adolescents) were assessed as covariates. Kaplan-Meier procedure, Decision Tree analysis, and Cox Proportional Hazard model indicated that participants could be classified into three different risk levels by using the YLS/CMI total scores. Moreover, a one-point increase in the YLS/CMI total score was associated with an 11 percent increase in the hazard ratio (HR＝1.109). These results indicated that YLS/CMI could assess the risk of recidivism in juvenile delinquents that are not under detention. It is suggested that applications of this assessment tool are extended to the clinical practices for juvenile delinquency.


本研究では，家庭裁判所に在宅事件として送致された非行少年(N=213)を対象に， Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory(YLS/CMI)を用いて再犯に至るリス クを査定し，予測的妥当性を検証した。従属変数としての「再犯」は，社会内で調査官調 査を受けた後，再び事件を起こすことと定義し，再犯の有無，再犯に至るまでの期間を調 査した。共変量として，終局処分の結果(保護処分あり，保護処分なし，その他)，性別， 年齢層(年少少年，年中少年，年長少年)を調査した。カプランマイヤー推定法，決定木 分析，Cox 比例ハザードモデルを用いて分析した結果，YLS/CMI の合計得点によって対 象者が三つのリスクレベルに分類できること，YLS/CMI 合計得点が 1 点上がるごとに瞬間 再犯確率が 1.109 倍になることが示された。非行少年の大部分を占める在宅事件において， YLS/CMI を用いて再犯リスクを査定できることが示されたことは，このツールの非行臨床 への適用可能性が拡張されたと考えることができる。 キーワード:再犯リスク，予測的妥当性，YLS/CMI，非行少年

Language: ja

Keywords

juvenile delinquents; predictive validity; recidivism risk; YLS/CMI; 予測的妥当性; 再犯リスク; 非行少年