Citation

Minter AL. Traffic Eng. Control 1987; 28(2): 74-79.

Affiliation

Middlesex Polytechnic, England

Copyright

(Copyright © 1987, Hemming Group)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Two Learning Curve models (Wright and Towill) are discussed and their performance and experience parameters are translated into road safety terms. Smeed's Law is shown to correspond with the Wright model and UK data about road deaths were fitted successfully to the Towill model. A predictive model for road deaths in the UK was developed. The predictive model successfully matches the high death levels of the 1960s and the subsequent drop. The model is applied to motorcyclist casualties also and is found to be a fairly good representation. Using the cruder data available from European countries, comparative figures are derived for casualty rates and national driving experience and are compared graphically. The differences between countries are not quite as great as popularly expected.