Citation

Matthay EC, Farkas K, Rudolph KE, Zimmerman S, Barragan M, Goin DE, Ahern J. Am. J. Public Health 2019; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

Ellicott C. Matthay is with the Center for Health and Community, University of California, San Francisco. Kriszta Farkas, Scott Zimmerman, Dana E. Goin, and Jennifer Ahern are with the Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Kara E. Rudolph is with the Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY. Melissa Barragan is with the Department of Criminology, Law and Society, School of Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, American Public Health Association)

DOI

10.2105/AJPH.2019.305288

PMID

31536413

Abstract

Objectives. To evaluate whether the Operation Peacemaker Fellowship, an innovative firearm violence-prevention program implemented in Richmond, California, was associated with reductions in firearm and nonfirearm violence.Methods. We compiled city- and jurisdiction-level quarterly counts of violent firearm and nonfirearm incidents from statewide records of deaths from and hospital visits for homicide and assault (2005-2016) and from nationwide crime records of homicides and aggravated assaults (1996-2015). We applied a generalization of the synthetic control method to compare observed patterns in firearm and nonfirearm violence after implementation of the program (June 2010) to those predicted in the absence of the program, using a weighted combination of comparison cities or jurisdictions.Results. The program was associated with reductions in firearm violence (annually, 55% fewer deaths and hospital visits, 43% fewer crimes) but also unexpected increases in nonfirearm violence (annually, 16% more deaths and hospital visits, 3% more crimes). These associations were unlikely to be attributable to chance for all outcomes except nonfirearm homicides and assaults in crime data.Conclusions. The Operation Peacemaker Fellowship may have been effective in reducing firearm violence in Richmond but may have increased nonfirearm violence. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 19, 2019: e1-e7. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305288).

Language: en