Citation

Fill JM, Davis CN, Crandall RM. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2019; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/gcb.14727

PMID

31297944

Abstract

Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet-dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897-2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder-days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning-ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.

© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Language: en

Keywords

cumulative rainfall anomaly; grassland; precipitation; savanna; wildfire