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Abstract
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Background
Global demand for air travel is increasing. Concurrently, the average weight of global population has been rising in the past decades, and this trend is set to persist in the near future. These two issues converge to the inevitable problem of dealing with a combination of increasing passengers on aircraft and their corresponding weight. Most aircraft performance assumptions rely on knowing the weight of the aircraft. However, the precise passenger payload weight is unknown and pilots rely on estimates that are often out of date and may not reflect the current population demography.
Methods
This paper explores the effects an increasing passenger weight payload has on key performance characteristics of commercial aircraft. A passenger demographic model is developed based on varying body mass index levels. Aircraft performance characteristics are determined from established analytical methods to examine three aircraft types. Comparisons are made between standard passenger weights from key aviation regulators around the world with scenarios reflecting various degrees of obesity prevalence. These scenarios are further compared to global variation across different regions around the world.
Findings
In parts of Africa and Asia that have low obesity prevalence but use standard passenger weights are overestimating aircraft performance characteristics, particularly fuel costs. Juxtaposed, regions of higher obesity prevalence such as those encompassing westernised nations may begin to see significantly compromised safety margins if increasing weight trends continue.
Conclusions
Overall performance characteristics for any aircraft type considered in this study will be significantly affected should existing obesity growth forecasts for the next decades are proven to be accurate. Thereby, justifying the need for more accurate regulations and improved flight operational procedures.
Language: en |