Citation

Lo YTE, Mitchell DM, Gasparrini A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Ebi KL, Frumhoff PC, Millar RJ, Roberts W, Sera F, Sparrow S, Uhe P, Williams G. Sci. Adv. 2019; 5(6): eaau4373.

Affiliation

School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, American Association for the Advancement of Science)

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.aau4373

PMID

31183397

PMCID

PMC6551192

Abstract

Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

Language: en