Citation

András Nyári T, McNally R. J. Matern. Fetal Neonatal. Med. 2019; ePub(ePub): 1-7.

Affiliation

Institute of Health & Society , Newcastle University , Newcastle upon Tyne , England, United Kingdom . richard.mcnally@ncl.ac.uk.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Informa Healthcare)

DOI

10.1080/14767058.2019.1594765

PMID

30880511

Abstract

AIM: This ecological study was carried out to determine the cyclic trends in the rate of perinatal and infant mortality and among children aged under 15 years who died in traffic accidents or from drowning, respiratory disease or cancer.

METHODS: Monthly data on the numbers of live births, perinatal and infant deaths and deaths from respiratory disease, cancer, traffic accidents, accidental drowning and submersion in children aged under 15 years were obtained from the Hungarian nationwide population register. The data were aggregated over the study period and cyclic trends were investigated using the Walter-Elwood and negative binomial regression methods.

RESULTS: Significant double-peak (May and November) trends were found in mortality rates for perinatal and infant deaths, respectively. Additionally, significant (p-value < 0.001) seasonal variation in monthly mortality rates for deaths from respiratory diseases was observed with a peak in February, and a significant single peak was observed in mortality rates in July in both deaths from traffic accidents and drowning among children aged 0-14 years. However, there was no seasonal variation in monthly mortality rates for deaths from childhood cancer.

CONCLUSIONS: Since cyclic trends in mortality suggest some effect of environmental factors in aetiology, we might speculate that perinatal mortality may have been related to respiratory infections. A significant single peak was observed in mortality rates in July in both deaths from traffic accidents and drowning among children aged 0-14 years which could be related to environmental factors, such as temperature, air masses and fronts. However, there was no seasonal variation in monthly mortality rates for deaths from childhood cancer. All of these novel findings could prove useful in preventive strategies, but further cohort studies are needed to investigate this hypothesis.

Language: en

Keywords

Double peak; Walter-Elwood method; infant mortality; perinatal mortality; seasonality