Citation

Park SJ, Kim DW, Deo RC, Lee JS. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2018; 31: 668-678.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.06.016

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Despite largely indisputable evidence of global warming, abnormally cold temperatures frequently affect regions of the Northern hemisphere. As a result of cold, several countries have sustained considerable property damage and numerous human fatalities. To reduce mortality from cold-related events, this study aims to analyze the vulnerability of people who die as a result of cold temperatures. The data used for the analysis is comprised of cold-related mortality statistics and 20 variables. We define cold-related deaths as those attributable to hypothermia during the winter and broadly classify the 20 variables, as they relate to climate, demographics, and socioeconomic factors, into three categories: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. From the 20 variables, we enter three of them (i.e., aging rate, financial reliance, and the number of days below −10 ℃) into a generalized linear regression model, accounting for statistical correlation and multicollinearity, to estimate the spatial distribution of cold-related deaths. The resulting correlation coefficient for the final model is approximately 0.82. Then, from the final model, we adopt estimated values to construct a hypothermia death vulnerability map and find that the sociodemographic distribution has a greater effect on hypothermia vulnerability than climate exposure and that residents of rural areas are more vulnerable than those of urban areas. The hypothermia death vulnerability map could be a useful scientific tool for future cold-related disaster management decisions and policies, which should ultimately reduce the number of human fatalities.

Language: en

Keywords

Generalized regression; Hypothermia; Mapping vulnerability