Citation

Castillo-Carniglia A, Pear VA, Tracy M, Keyes KM, Cerdá M. Am. J. Epidemiol. 2019; 188(4): 694-702.

Affiliation

Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Oxford University Press)

DOI

10.1093/aje/kwy289

PMID

30608509

Abstract

Increasing alcohol outlet density is well-documented to be associated with increased alcohol use and problems, leading to the policy recommendation that limiting outlet density will decrease alcohol problems. Yet few studies of decreasing problematic outlets and outlet density have been conducted. We estimated the association between closing alcohol outlets and alcohol use and alcohol-related violence, using an agent-based model of the adult population in New York City. The model was calibrated according to the empirical distribution of the parameters across the city's population, including the density of on- and off-premise alcohol outlets. Interventions capped the alcohol outlet distribution at the 90th up to the 50th percentiles of the New York City density, and closed 5% to the 25% of outlets with the highest levels of violence. Capping density led to a lower population of light drinkers (42.2% at baseline vs. 38.1% at the 50th percentile), while heavy drinking increased slightly (12.0% at baseline vs. 12.5% at the 50th percentile). Alcohol-related homicides and non-fatal violence remained unchanged. Closing violent outlets was not associated with changes in alcohol use or related problems.

RESULTS suggest that focusing solely on closing alcohol outlets may not be an effective strategy to reduce alcohol-related problems.

Language: en