Citation

Smith G, Capron A. Big Data 2018; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Affiliation

Department of Economics, Pomona College , Claremont, California.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Mary Ann Liebert Publishers)

DOI

10.1089/big.2018.0036

PMID

30427702

Abstract

Football (American football) scores are an imperfect measure of a team's ability, and consequently exaggerate differences in abilities. Those teams that perform the best and the worst are not really so far from average in their ability; thus their future performances regress to the mean. Betting data indicate that gamblers do not fully account for this regression.

Language: en

Keywords

betting odds; football wagers; overreaction; regression to mean