Citation

Mafi S, Abdelrazig Y, Doczy R. Transp. Res. Rec. 2018; 2672(38): 160-170.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences USA, Publisher SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0361198118783111

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Gap acceptance predictability has become a vital area of interest for traffic safety and operations due to its complexity and significance in understanding a population's driving behavior. Recent studies have implemented statistical modeling techniques, such as binary logit model (BLM), to predict drivers' gap acceptance behaviors. However, these models have inherent presumptions and pre-set correlations that, if contravened, can produce erroneous results. The use of non-parametric data mining techniques, such as decision trees, avoids these deficiencies, thus resulting in improvements to the predictive capability of the models. In this study, the feasibility of C4.5 decision trees, instance-based (IB), and random forest (RF) models for predicting drivers' gap decisions was examined by comparing their results with BLM. To accomplish this objective, 66 study participants drove through ten driving simulation scenarios requiring the navigation of unprotected right and left-turning maneuvers at four-legged, signalized intersections. The data collected from these tests will provide means to directly compare and rank the data mining and statistical models, while also allowing for the identification of variables that are significantly influencing gap acceptance.

RESULTS produced from the models indicated that data mining models were superior to BLM at accurately predicting a participant's gap decisions. RF models outperformed the C4.5 and IB models in predicting gap acceptance behaviors for both the left and right turning scenarios. Because of its superior performance, the authors recommend the implementation of the RF model for predicting gap decisions at unprotected signalized intersections.

Language: en