Citation

Xie K, Ozbay K, Yang H. Accid. Anal. Prev. 2019; 122: 189-198.

Affiliation

Department of Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Engineering, Old Dominion University (ODU), 4700 Elkhorn Ave, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA. Electronic address: hyang@odu.edu.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.aap.2018.10.009

PMID

30388574

Abstract

Conventional safety models rely on the assumption of independence of crash data, which is frequently violated. This study develops a novel multivariate conditional autoregressive (MVCAR) model to account for the spatial autocorrelation of neighboring sites and the inherent correlation across different crash types. Manhattan, which is the most densely populated urban area of New York City, is used as the study area. Census tracts are used as the basic geographic units to capture crash, transportation, land use, and demo-economic data. The specification of the proposed multivariate model allows for jointly modeling counts of various crash types that are classified according to injury severity.

RESULTS of Moran's I tests show the ability of the MVCAR model to capture the multivariate spatial autocorrelation among different crash types. The MVCAR model is found to outperform the others by presenting the lowest deviance information criterion (DIC) value. It is also found that the unobserved heterogeneity was mostly attributed to spatial factors instead of non-spatial ones and there is a strong shared geographical pattern of risk among different crash types.

Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Language: en

Keywords

Bayesian method; Multivariate conditional autoregressive model; Safety analysis; Spatial statistics