Citation

Schäfer AW. Transportation (Amst) 2017; 44(2): 293-310.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group)

DOI

10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.

Language: en