Citation

López-Benito A, Bolado-Lavín R. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety 2017; 165: 11-21.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.019

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This paper addresses the identification of the most important input parameters in a natural gas transmission model, in particular regarding their possible effects on pressure and temperature drops. This model has the peculiarity that a significant number of its uncertain input parameters are dependent on each other. Combinations of input parameters considered a priori as valid deliver impossible physical results (i.e.: negative pressures). This advises the application of a sampling method that rejects samples that lead to non-physical results. In a Bayesian framework, selective sample rejection modifies the a priori probability density function (pdf) of independent input parameters producing an a posteriori pdf with dependent inputs. Borgonovo's δ has been the Global Sensitivity Analysis measure selected for performing the sensitivity analysis. The results obtained are completely in line with what physical intuition indicates.

Language: en

Keywords

Dependent inputs; Global sensitivity analysis; Moment independent measures; Natural gas dynamics