Citation

Huan A, Emmers R. Global Change Peace Secur. 2017; 29(1): 77-93.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/14781158.2016.1259214

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Inter-state preventive diplomacy (PD) has mostly been regarded as successful in Southeast Asia as evidenced by the absence of inter-state armed conflict. This success has generally been credited to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Yet, in terms of addressing specific crises, the paper argues that three factors are critical to the success of inter-state PD in Southeast Asia: the level of great power interest in particular disputes, the perceived legitimacy of the PD actor, and the nature of the agreement being sought. Great power interference complicates strategic calculations and is therefore likely to make it harder for PD attempts to succeed. Reversely, the critical involvement of the United Nations as a PD-doer and negotiator helps de-escalate violence in interstate disputes in Southeast Asia. The paper applies these factors to understand why the East Timor and the Preah Vihear Temple cases were successful exercises of PD while PD, in regard to the South China Sea dialogue, has so far only produced limited results.

Language: en

Keywords

Association of Southeast Asian Nations; East Timor; Preah Vihear Temple; Preventive diplomacy; South China Sea; United Nations