Citation

Lockhart J. Open Access J. Forensic Psychol. 2017; 9: 19-34.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Gregory DeClue)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

Experts in many fields, including forensic psychology and psychiatry, are asked to provide risk assessments regarding future events. These risk estimates are used in individual decision-making, often with life-changing consequences. How should the expert conceptualize individual risk? And, how is such risk best communicated to the trier-of-fact? Understanding and conveying the level of uncertainty involved in the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs), and their application in "individual" risk has generated substantial recent controversy. Significant disagreement centers on a rather humble statistic: the confidence interval, and how to best calculate and use group confidence intervals for proportions when making decisions about individual cases. This article will discuss some of the foundational assumptions of statistics related to confidence intervals, to allow the forensic expert to understand the basic controversy surrounding the issue, and provide suggestions in how to convey risk estimates while reducing potential confusion.


Keywords: confidence intervals, risk assessment

Language: en