Citation

Lai X, Li Z, Li J. Transp. Plann. Tech. 2018; 41(5): 497-518.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/03081060.2018.1468973

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Understanding residents' perception and reaction to vehicle restriction policies is significant for transportation management. However, few studies have examined it from a behavioral and disaggregated perspective, particularly from people's responses to uncertainties in choices, and their consequent behaviors under potential risks. This paper proposes a multi-level nested logit method to model sequential choice behaviors considering uncertainties under a vehicle license restriction policy. Prospect theory is applied, where a novel reference point is proposed based on instances of 'whether a risk happens' rather than a hard number which is difficult to obtain in reality. A case study in Guangzhou, China is presented, where a vehicle restriction policy has been applied for three years. Residents' attitudes and preferences under uncertainties and different risks are revealed, and these factors are significant in predicting people's future decisions while policy changes.

Language: en

Keywords

endogenous reference point; license choice; nested logit; prospect theory; Vehicle restriction policy