Citation

Shakhmatov MV, Usmanova EA. Procedia Eng. 2017; 206: 16-20.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2017, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.proeng.2017.10.430

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The existing methods for assessing the reliability of pipelines take into account the mechanical characteristics of the pipe, the type and loading parameters, the number and size of defects, and a number of other factors affecting the operability of the pipeline. However, the precise definition of pipelines' remaining life in a certain period by the method of experimental investigations is practically impossible to predict due to measurement errors, assembly technique, personnel qualification, etc. The modern in-line inspection revealed many inconsistencies of the results of the calculation methods and regulatory requirements. In this article the methodology on estimating reliability of pipelines on the basis of probabilistic approaches is elaborated, on the basis of which it is possible to determine the reliability of the pipeline systems and the effectiveness of measures aimed at eliminating the most dangerous defects by the process of repair. There is a proposition to replace expensive experimental investigations for numerical modelling of the deterioration process by using a set of random variables. The results of numerical computations of existing approach should define the destruction time caused by a defect. An example of calculating reliability of a pipeline section with defects in the operational period of 5 years is given. After the elimination of defects during the process of repair, the reliability of the pipeline section is 92%.

Keywords: Pipeline transportation

Language: en

Keywords

probabilistic approach; the lack of penetration; the limiting defect size; the operability of the pipeline; the target coverage factor; the welding