Citation

Matellini DB, Wall AD, Jenkinson ID, Wang J, Pritchard R. Risk Anal. 2018; 38(10): 2087-2104.

Affiliation

Merseyside Fire and Rescue Authority, Liverpool, UK.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.13113

PMID

29772062

Abstract

In the United Kingdom, dwelling fires are responsible for the majority of all fire-related fatalities. The development of these incidents involves the interaction of a multitude of variables that combine in many different ways. Consequently, assessment of dwelling fire risk can be complex, which often results in ambiguity during fire safety planning and decision making. In this article, a three-part Bayesian network model is proposed to study dwelling fires from ignition through to extinguishment in order to improve confidence in dwelling fire safety assessment. The model incorporates both hard and soft data, delivering posterior probabilities for selected outcomes. Case studies demonstrate how the model functions and provide evidence of its use for planning and accident investigation.

© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Language: en

Keywords

Bayesian network; cost-benefit; dwelling fires; human reaction; probability of fatality