Citation

Lee WS, Choi HS, Sohn SY. PLoS One 2018; 13(4): e0194723.

Affiliation

Department of Information & Industrial Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Public Library of Science)

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0194723

PMID

29630616

Abstract

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

Language: en