Citation

Yazdi M, Korhan O, Daneshvar S. Int. J. Occup. Safety Ergonomics 2018; ePub(ePub): 1-17.

Affiliation

Department of Industrial Engineering , Eastern Mediterranean University , Famagusta , Turkey.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Centralny Instytut Ochrony Pracy - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, Publisher Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1080/10803548.2018.1454636

PMID

29557291

Abstract

This study aimed at establishing fault tree analysis (FTA) using expert opinion to compute the probability of an event. Thus, in order to find the probability of the top event (TE), all probabilities of the basic events (BEs) should be available when FTA is drawn for an event. In this case, employing expert judgment can be used as an alternative to failure data in an awkward situation. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) as a standard technique is used to give a specific weight to each expert, and fuzzy set theory is engaged for aggregating expert opinion. In this regards, the probability of BEs will be computed and consequently, the probability of TE is obtained using Boolean algebra. Additionally, for the reduction of the probability of TE in terms of three parameter including safety consequences, cost, and benefit; importance measurement technique and modified TOPSIS was employed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was demonstrated with a real-life case study.

Language: en

Keywords

Chemical complex plant; Expert judgment; Fault tree analysis; Fuzzy set theory; TOPSIS