Citation

Liu K, Wang M, Cao Y, Zhu W, Wu J, Yan X. Risk Anal. 2018; 38(8): 1618-1633.

Affiliation

Systems Science Institute, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2018, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.12968

PMID

29377210

Abstract

Climate change and its projected natural hazards have an adverse impact on the functionality and operation of transportation infrastructure systems. This study presents a comprehensive framework to analyze the risk to transportation infrastructure networks that are affected by natural hazards. The proposed risk analysis method considers both the failure probability of infrastructure components and the expected infrastructure network efficiency and capacity loss due to component failure. This comprehensive approach facilitates the identification of high-risk network links in terms of not only their susceptibility to natural hazards but also their overall impact on the network. The Chinese national rail system and its exposure to rainfall-related multihazards are used as a case study. The importance of various links is comprehensively assessed from the perspectives of topological, efficiency, and capacity criticality. Risk maps of the national railway system are generated, which can guide decisive action regarding investments in preventative and adaptive measures to reduce risk.

© 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Language: en

Keywords

Failure probability; natural hazards; random forest; risk analysis; transportation network